Top Ten Most Discounted Properties
We are back to normal this week, with SQM Research compiling the top ten most discounted properties on a national scale.
|
Rank
|
Address
|
Suburb
|
Postcode
|
First seen
|
Initial price
|
Now asking
|
Reduction
|
Days on Mkt
|
Link
|
|
1
|
1350 Wynnum Road
|
Tingalpa
|
4173
|
06/11/2010
|
$700,000
|
$400,000
|
43%
|
196
|
|
|
2
|
1/21 Ocean Drive
|
Coogee
|
6166
|
23/05/2010
|
$2,700,000
|
$1,600,000
|
41%
|
364
|
|
|
3
|
12 Mcclure Road
|
Upper Caboolture
|
4510
|
26/12/2009
|
$1,600,000
|
$999,500
|
38%
|
511
|
|
|
4
|
16/153 Kensington Street
|
East Perth
|
6004
|
21/08/2010
|
$845,000
|
$529,000
|
37%
|
273
|
|
|
5
|
232-234 High Central Rd
|
Macleay Island
|
4184
|
11/01/2009
|
$279,000
|
$175,000
|
37%
|
861
|
|
|
6
|
25 Vicary Street
|
Triabunna
|
7190
|
02/08/2010
|
$299,000
|
$189,000
|
37%
|
294
|
|
|
7
|
128/151 Adelaide Terrace
|
East Perth
|
6004
|
18/05/2009
|
$1,250,000
|
^$799,000
|
36%
|
735
|
|
|
8
|
290 Viveash Rd
|
Swan View
|
6056
|
05/06/2008
|
$2,290,000
|
$1,500,000
|
34%
|
1082
|
|
|
9
|
3 Boolari Road
|
Gosford West
|
2250
|
08/07/2009
|
$990,000
|
$650,000
|
34%
|
682
|
|
|
10
|
1/16 Dewar
|
Ledge Point
|
6043
|
15/11/2009
|
$375,000
|
$250,000
|
33%
|
552
|
* ^ = more than
As is evident, Sydney and Melbourne are noticeably absent from our nationwide list and have had minimal presence in recent weeks.
We think to a certain extent that this reflects our initial forecast for 2011, that the state of Queensland is set to suffer a little more than the others, and is already showing declines on a larger scale comparatively. With three properties in the top end of our list with discounts in the percentage range of 37-43%, the State of Queensland is taking the lead so to speak where the slashing of prices is concerned.
Of course this is suburb specific, and not all areas are suffering similarly, but as has been mentioned in past newsletters of late - the regions that are being hit this year - are being hit HARD.
Sydney and Melbourne are perhaps sitting a little safer for now, but for an area by area forecast, read on below where we will detail what our predictions are for house prices going forward.
SQM Research's House Price Forecast
Given the media coverage of our residential real estate forecasts over the past week, we thought it prudent to state exactly what our stance is for our subscribers, so as to quash any confusion that may be out there concerning our figures and research. The forecasts are as follows:
Capital City Outlook
Sydney - Dwelling prices currently down 2% from peak. Expected further decline in 2011 is 2-4%. Therefore, total accumulated decline (from peak) by the end of 2011 is expected to be 4-6%.
Brisbane- Dwelling prices currently down 3.6% from peak. Expected further decline in 2011 is 4-6%. Therefore, total accumulated decline (from peak) by the end of 2011 is expected to be 7.6-9.6%.
Perth - Dwelling prices currently down 3.8% from peak. Expected further decline in 2011 is 4-6%. Therefore, total accumulated decline (from peak) by the end of 2011 is expected to be 7.8-9.8%.
Adelaide- Dwelling prices currently down 1% from peak. Expected further decline in 2011 is 1-3%. Therefore, total accumulated decline (from peak) by the end of 2011 is expected to be 2-4%.
Melbourne- Dwelling prices currently down 2.5% from peak. Expected further decline in 2011 is 3-5%. Therefore, total accumulated decline (from peak) by the end of 2011 is expected to be 5.5-7.5%.
Hobart - Dwelling prices currently down 0.5% from peak. Expected further decline in 2011 is 1-3%. Therefore, total accumulated decline (from peak) by the end of 2011 is expected to be 1.5-3.5%.
Darwin - Dwelling prices currently down 1.3% from peak. Expected further decline in 2011 is 5-7% in 2011. Therefore, total accumulated decline (from peak) by the end of 2011 is expected to be 6.3-8.3%.
Canberra - Dwelling prices currently down 0.4% from peak. Expected further decline in 2011 is 1-3%. Therefore, total accumulated decline (from peak) by the end of 2011 is expected to be 1.4-3.4%.
Regional Outlook
We believe the following regions are where the falls will be most acute -
Western Australia:
Mandurah - Currently down 8% from peak. Expected further decline for 2011 is 8-12%. Therefore, the total accumulated decline (from peak) by end of 2011 is expected to be 16-20%.
Queensland:
Surfers Paradise - Currently down 9.5% from peak. Expected further decline for 2011 9-15%. Therefore, the total accumulated decline (from peak) by the end of 2011 18.5-24.5%.
Sunshine Coast - Currently down 9.0% from peak. Expected further decline for 2011 is 9-15%. Therefore, the total accumulated decline (from peak) by the end of 2011 is 18-24%.
New South Wales:
Central Coast - Currently down 3% from peak. Expected further decline for 2011 is 5-8%. Therefore, the total accumulated decline (from peak) by the end of 2011 is 8-11%.
Tweed Heads - Currently down 8.0% from peak. Expected further decline for 2011 is 9-15%. Therefore, the total accumulated decline (from peak) by the end of 2011 is 17-23%.
Sydney's Prestige property market - Currently down 12% from peak. Expected further decline for 2011 is 5-8%. Therefore, the total accumulated decline (from peak) by the end of 2011 is 17-20%.
Victoria:
Melbourne's Inner Ring - Currently down 6% from peak. Expected further decline for 2011 is 7-9%. Therefore, the total accumulated decline (from peak) by the end of 2011 is 13-15%.
South Australia:
Port Adelaide - Currently down 3% from peak. Expected further decline for 2011 is 5-8%. Therefore, the total accumulated decline (from peak) by the end of 2011 is 8-11%.
Tasmania:
Launceston - Currently down 3% from peak. Expected further decline for 2011 is 5-7%. Therefore, the total accumulated decline (from peak) by the end of 2011 is 8 - 10%.
So just to be completely clear, when we state "peak", we are referring to the highest point that the median dwelling price reached and in most instances the peak was recorded in the second half of 2010. SO when we state "3% from peak", we mean dwelling prices have fallen 3% from the peak level, up until the present day.
We would also like to add that the data on 'falls' to date, is sourced from the highly respected, composition adjusted ABS and APM housing price series as well as raw data from Property Data Solutions, which is two of the Reserve Bank's preferred benchmarks on measuring house prices.
Our forecasts are based on rigorous modelling (yes, we have highly educated staff here as well and better still, they are experienced!). In essence, the modelling encompasses a regression analysis of historical performance quantified against a number of key variables which have influenced the market in the past.
The range in our forecasts takes into account a possible 25 basis point increase in interest rates with the bottom end of the range (recording the largest fall). Such a rise would need to occur by the beginning of September 2011. The upper end of the range assumes no interest rate rises for 2011. For now, we will leave out other, more extreme possibilities in the distribution of our forecasts, which we consider to be an unlikely outcome at this stage, such as either a cut in interest rates or multiple rate rises this year.
However, it is important that we assert that this is just our opinion, though one we have a strong conviction on.
For those who want to make a copy of these forecasts in their own blog, we would appreciate that the copy is made in full, with no abbreviation of our range. Feel free to
contact us if you need further clarification.
In the near future, we will be releasing formalised, national and regional outlook reports to subscribers.
Black Dragon's comments for this week -
"Never argue with an idiot. He will drag you down to his level and beat you with experience."
That's all for this week from the team at SQM Research. You can follow us by 'liking' our official
facebook page, and you can keep up to date with comments from our Managing Director - Louis Christopher by adding him on either
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Happy House Hunting!
ACN 122 592 036
Tel: 1800 766 651
