rpdata.com’s weekly measure of professional activity in the property market, the Market Activity Index, has shown a predictable substantial softening over the last two weeks as pre-listings activity has wound down during the festive season and many professionals having taken holidays. If last year is any indication, professional activity will begin to pick up in the last week of January.

The RP Data-Rismark national Home Value results were released last week and they showed that the Australian residential property market continued to strengthen during November. Australian home values have now recorded double-digit growth during 2009 (11.6%), with the December results due to be released on January 29. The standout performers during the first 11 months of 2009 have been: Darwin with values increasing 17.9% and Melbourne where values have climbed by 17.0%. On the other hand the under performers have been: Adelaide (5.7% growth), Perth (6.5% growth) and Brisbane (6.9%).

Weekly Key Statistic - rental rates and yields

On an annual basis most capital city markets are seeing that their median weekly rent is still higher than it was 12 months ago. In saying this, virtually every city across all property types has seen median rental rates fall over the last six months as first home buyers have been very active easing some of the rental market pressure. In turn, rental yields have also eroded as rental rates have begun to fall and property values continue to climb. We anticipate the rental market will tighten over the first half of 2010 leading to higher rents due to ongoing low vacancy rates.


Latest National Auction Clearance Rates

The most recent week’s auction numbers were quite strong with 1,552 auctions held despite the fact it was the week before Christmas. In most markets clearance rates fell during the week however, they were still generally quite strong with the biggest auction market (Melbourne) recording a clearance rate of 75.5% and the second largest market (Sydney) recording a clearance rate of 68.6%.

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Advertised Stock on The Market

Total housing stock available for sale has been falling in recent weeks as fewer vendors look to begin advertising their property over the traditionally quiet Christmas / new year period. New listings and total listing are at levels which are significantly lower than they were 12 months ago. In fact, there are 17,000 fewer new listings over the last month than there were over the same period last year and around 49,000 fewer total listings.

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Lifestyle regions across the Australian coastline have been some of the hardest hit by the economic downturn however, they are starting to bounce back but bargains are still available if you look hard enough.

Although coastal markets have felt the full brunt of the global economic downturn there is now evidence in most regions that values falls have now slowed or subsided and some areas are now starting to bounce back. Coastal properties remain popular because of the Australian fixation with the coastline resulting in a desire by many to live within close proximity to the coast.

The falling prices in coastal areas have seen some of the most popular and expensive coastal markets witness significant falls as those who have over capitalised have, in some instances, been forced to sell. A case in point is the suburb of Portsea, on the Mornington Peninsula of Victoria where median house prices have fallen by -32.7% over the last 12 months.

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Over the last few years we have consistently seen that Australia’s population has been growing strongly with more migrants and an improving birth rate resulting in a jump in natural increase (total births minus total deaths). During the 12 months to June 2009 we have witnessed a slowdown in the rate of population growth, largely fuelled by a slowdown during the last quarter. The data shows that on an annual basis migration is still growing strongly however, over the quarter it dropped significantly from 96,611 overseas migrants in the March quarter to 58,145 migrants during the June quarter. Natural increase also fell duing the June quarter, but only slightly from 38,519 in March to 37,658 in June. The level of natural increase has been falling for three successive quarters now. The graph below shows the components of quarterly population growth on an annual average basis and you can see that even on annualised basis the slowdown in migration and natural increase is evident.

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